The Bottom Line
Wednesday’s forecast is pretty similar to Tuesday’s – hit-or-miss raindrops and thick clouds. A batch of heavier rain is missing us to the east. Strong soaking thunderstorms are expected to setup to the west. But here in New Jersey, just unsettled, dreary, and occasionally damp.
Wednesday evening, with the overall wettest period of weather coming Thursday morning.
As always in the warm weather months, summer weekends are precious. In the end, I don’t care what happened in our weather world during the week. Of a ship out of the weekend is OK.
And this weekend is looking more than OK – it’s trending quite summer-ish.
As of this writing (6 am), there are few showers clipping the coast (Monmouth and Ocean counties). And that’s really the story of the day – occasional raindrops, especially along the eastern edge of the state.
Farther west, you will see a fighter sky and probably a dry day overall.
High temperatures will depend on where you are and what (if anything) falls from the sky. To the east, mid to upper 60s. To the west, lower to mid 70s. Average high will be around 70 degrees – that is more than 10 degrees below normal for late June.
Wednesday evening approaches. Still scattered and relatively unimpactful. There could be some localized downpours around, or even rumbles of thunder. But instability will be scarce. And we’re not tapping into a rich stream of moisture here. So don’t expect anything dramatic or severe – just wet.
Also, it’s worth noting that piece of energy draped over the coast and on-shore breeze raises the current risk to moderate Wednesday. Not that it’s a great beach day at all.
And finally, we have the Mullica River wildfire, which is now almost completely contained. Model guidance shows like smoke drifting into central and northern New Jersey Wednesday. However, it won’t be as strong as the past few days. And air quality concerns are very low.
One more big push of rain is expected Thursday, from morning through midday. Again, nothing too heavy, though a quarter-inch of rainfall possible.
If we go well, as our stagnant storm system drifts away, skies will slowly clear through Thursday afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be limited to the lower to maybe mid 70s.
The workweek ends on a positive note, as Friday turns partly sunny and high temperatures surge to about 80 degrees. Some models plug in a popup shower during the day on Friday, but that’s a very slight chance. (That I was tempted to remove from the forecast completely, FYI.)
Humidity levels will remain consistently moderate for the duration here. Dew point around 60 degrees is probably par for the course for this time of year. Not too steamy, but enough to keep the overnights from getting too cool.
If you’re craving a warmer weather, in the hope of planning a trip to the beach or pool, this weekend is looking good.
High temperatures on Saturday are forecast to reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Again, humidity will be therebut not tropical. Skies will feature a mix of sunshine and clouds. Winds will be light, out of the southwest up to 15 mph.
We should get a nice sea breeze at the Jersey Shore on Saturday, keeping temperatures closer to 80 degrees. Water temperatures are close to 70 at this point. So we could have some beautiful beach weather on our hands for the first weekend of summer.
More clouds than Sunday, but similarly hot temperatures near 90 degrees. Some models paint our next storm system – a cold front – arriving Sunday evening. But for now, In favor of a dry forecast. Especially during the daytime hours.
The Extended Forecast
That cold front will push across New Jersey on Monday. The timing and speed of that frontal passage will dictate its impacts. Given the uncertainty at 6+ days, I don’t wanna go into details just yet. We will probably see a period of rain, and then the influx of cooler air into Tuesday. If you can go well, a dome of high pressure could be with us in June.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
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