April 29, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update-Severe Weather Risk with Some Heavy Rainfall | News

After lows this morning of 44-54, highs today reached 64-75.







Severe weather outbreak will continue this evening-tonight with ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK from SPC in the Plains.

As of 10:30 pm, there have been 12 tornado reports in Kansas with wind gusts measured up to 91 mph in Nebraska. Hail up to grapefruit size has also been reported.







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Sequence shows these few scattered showers departing, then break, then showers with isolated rumble of thunder overnight, then break, then wave of showers & a few t’storms late tomorrow morning-midday.

With east-southeast to southwest tonight 15-30 mph, lows will vary from 46-58 from northeast to southwest.







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Break with some sun & windy conditions (gusts to 30-40 mph from south-southeast) will likely then propel our highs to 72-79.

Dew points will rise to 63-67.

Severe storms should fire in central Illinois rapidly around 4 pm as supercells.

These will race eastward & new storms will for out ahead of these.

So, in our severe weather risk time frame from 5 pm to 1 am, it looks like a mix of supercells, multi-cells & a gelling QLCS squall line.

Some severe gusts & a couple EF0 to low-end EF2 tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Isolated severe hail is possible.







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Greater Lafayette considered sound at 5 pm motion.

The rainfall lingers longer than expected into the afternoon-evening ahead of the storms & we see less sun & warming overall.

Otherwise, it sure looks like a SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK scenario.

SPC is currently available in SLIGHT RISK for severe Saturday evening-night.

Potential is there for upgrading given the parameters in place, but that potential of lingering rainfall is a fly in the ointment.







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If upgraded, ENHANCED RISK would probably be painted like this latest 18z (afternoon) data model:







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Sunday looks dry & windy with south-southwest gusting 30-40 mph.

After mostly sunny skies, skies look mostly cloudy with the greatest amount of cloud cover in our northwestern counties. So, the coolest temperatures will be there.

Highs of 63-72 (northwest to south & southeast) are expected.

Sunday night looks dry with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies & lows 43-49.

Monday looks dry and mostly cloudy with highs 67-75 with southwest winds.

There will be a lot of severe weather west & southwest of our area Monday.







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We cloud up Monday night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s with south-southeast.

It looks like a round of rainfall & t’storms Tuesday morning.







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A break may follow with highs 68-75, but new showers & storms will likely affect us late afternoon-evening & into the night.

Data does not support severe weather risk with SLIGHT RISK-type parameters making it into our area late afternoon-evening.







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After that, all the severe weather risk is better southwest of our area Wednesday-Wednesday night.







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A lot of severe weather will continue to occur in the Plains to Thursday.

We see showers & t’storms here, but there is a lack of severe weather risk.







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The low will occlude rapidly weaken & sort of wobble southeastward.

This will keep severe weather risk all southwest & south of our area at the end of next week.

However, it could bring cool, showery weather Friday as a core of upper low pivots through our area.

Total rainfall over the next 7 days (starting today) should run 2-4 “with potential of a couple / few +4” inches.







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Still looks like the potential of some frost next weekend (Saturday night & Sunday night) with lows 32-35.







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After that, there is a stretching evolving of much warmer, drier weather.

Note the rainfall projection anomaly change from late April-early May to early to mid-May.

We go very wet to dry!







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You combine the much drier trend with these temperatures covering a good chunk of Canada & the central & eastern US & farm equipment will be rolling with a frenzy.







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There continue to be a strong tendency for big, big summer warm-ups mid to late May.

Now, we are likely to have a few rounds of rainfall and severe storms after the mid-point of May.







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There is a tendency though for hot, drier weather to end May & move into early June.

This will tend to allow farmers to get the rest of the crop out, but I think May be a huge month for getting much of the corn & soybean crop planted.

Temperature anomalies:







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Rainfall anomalies:







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