Bolsas de valores mexicanas cierran agosto en bear market

Las dos bolsas de valores de México ended August in a bear market, closing the month with a major drop of 20% from its last maximum level, affected by the increase in interest rates.

The main index of the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV), the S&P/BMV IPC, closed August 20.65% below its historical maximum on April 1, when it reached 57,064.16 points. El FTSE-BIVA, de la Bolsa Institucional de Valores (Biva) cae 20.11% desde su maximum en la misma fecha, cuando tocaba los 1,168.62 puntos.

“Ha sido un mal año para las bolsas en general, porque los bancos centrales están subiendo las tasas para controlar la inflation”, commented Jorge Gordillo, director of Analysis at CIBanco.

El alza en las tasas de interés competes directly with el rendidos de los mercados de valores, he added.

In May and June, the scenario was aggravated because they started raising rates more quickly in the United States and other countries, raising the concern of a possible recession.

Jacobo Rodríguez, director of Analysis at Black WallStreet Capital, said that the bearish tendency for Mexico’s stock markets was mainly explained by the increase in interest rates.

Explain that “estar en un mercado bajista no es bueno, pero se pone a tono con otros índices bursátiles. The difficult question to contest is how long can the “bear market” last for México because the risk factors are still present, because no one knows clearly when it is possible to give an inflection point with inflation, with interest rates, el conflicto en Europa, factors a los que no se ve una solución en el corto plazo”.

On Wall Street, the technology index NASDAQ Composite is still in a “bear market” as it entered the 6th of April and is trading 25.37% below its maximum on the 3rd of January. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones reported a fall of 17.55 and 14.37%, respectively, from their major levels of 3 and 4 January.

Otras bolsas de América Latina, como la de Colombia (-24.91%) y la de Perú (-25.27%) también están en un mercado jista.

Jorge Gordillo recalled that the recovery of the stock markets from the end of June to the beginning of August, in the United States of almost 10% and in Mexico of 6%, no fue sustainable después de que funcionadores de la Reserva Federal empezaron a endurecer su postura de política monetaria hasta tener controla la inflation. Luego, en la reunion en Jackson Hole, se hizo evident el mensaje.

“Entonces el mercado paró sus ganancias y la corrección se ha ampliado hasta ahora. Todo este cambio de sentimiento por la política monetaria está behind de la caída de los mercados accionarios”, he added.

Agosto, mes de pérdidas

Both the United States and Mexico stock markets ended on Wednesday with their fourth session of consecutive falls, leading to a negative monthly close and marking one of the worst performances of the last seven years for the month of August.

On the last day of the month, the Average Industrial Dow Jones fell 0.88%; The S&P 500 lost 0.78% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.56 percent. Respecto al balance mensual, NASDAQ perdió 4.64%, el S&P 500 cayó 4.24% y el Dow Jones 4.06 por ciento.

In Mexico, the S&P/BMV IPC finalized 44,919.22 units, an intraday drop of 2.18% with respect to the previous close, ending August with a decrease of 6.70 per cent. The FTS-BIVA lost 2.08% on Wednesday and sold a closing monthly loss of 6.63 per cent.

Jacobo Rodríguez emphasized that the falls in the BMV are being more aggressive than those on Wall Street because internally they perceive that the “shocks” in the economy can be greater because of Mexico’s dependence on the external sector. Además, the financial reports of the second quarter were weak.

Por ello, dijo que las bolsas se enfrentarán a septiembre, un mes que típicamente ha sido de bajo de performance.

Acaba en 20.1422 unidades

Peso closes the eighth month with appreciation of 1%

The Mexican peso closed August with an appreciation of 1.08% against the dollar, above 20 units, according to data from Banco de México.

“The appreciation of the Mexican peso, contrary to the rest of the market, is due to the expectation that the Banco de México (Banxico) will continue to subiendo its interest rate at an aggressive rate, despite the fact that it is located in a restrictive terrain after the decision de la Junta de Gobierno de subirla en 75 puntos base el 11 de agosto”, commented Gabriela Siller, directora de Análisis en Banco Base.

“The speculation of a more aggressive monetary position was driven by the inflation of the first fortnight of August, which saw an annual rate of 8.62%, above the expectations of the market”, he said.

In a sample of 22 currencies from emerging and developed countries, the Mexican currency was the third most appreciated dollar during August. Se ubicó por debajo del rublo ruso y el sol peruano, ante las cuales el dólar se depreció 2.26 y 1.77%, en ese order.

Otras monedas que también took advantage of the currency of the United States were the Chilean peso (-0.28%) and the Hong Kong dollar (-0.01%).

On the other hand, the Mexican peso broke last August’s session with four days of depreciation before the dollar, closing at 20.1432 units for the green bill, equivalent to an advance of 0.06% or 1.21 centavos, according to Banxico data.

La directiva en Banco Base destacó que durante Augusto, el la divisa de México enfrentó presiones para mantenerse sostenidamente por debajo de los 20 pesos por dólar, sin lograr el soporte clave de 19.80 pesos.

Therefore, the margin of appreciation for the Mexican peso “is limited and no se descarta el risego de presiones adicionales alza para el tipo de cambio”.

The American currency strengthened against various monedas, which was reflected in the August advance of the reference index, which registered an increase of 2.48 percent.

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