We managed 99 degrees officially again on Monday in Houston, but you may have noticed at least a slight humidity around that peak heating. It’s not much but it doesn’t help. So does air conditioning. Your author got his back before Monday afternoon, so we’ll call that a win.
Anyway, the hot weather will continue and so will the dust.
Look for another day with clouds, haze, and sun. We should be able to shave a degree or two off yesterday’s 99 degrees, so look for something more in the mid to upper-90s. Another burst of Saharan dust arriving today should help us double down on the hazy conditions and poor air quality. If you are asthmatic or sensitive to poor air quality, it would be a good idea to limit the time out.
Wednesday through Friday
Friday carries something above a 10 percent chance of a shower. Look for sun, clouds, and continued Saharan dust, likely at its worst on Thursday.
High temperatures will continue in the mid to upper-90s, with lows in the 70s and 80s. Those Friday rain may stand at around 20 percent, but most will not.
The Saharan dust event should end on Friday, with better quality and less haze for the upcoming weekend.
Weekend into next week
More of the same. The weak backdoor cold front (from north east… from Louisiana) Truthfully, I just don’t see anything better than 20 percent rain on any given day into the middle of next week. Highs will be well into the 90s each day.
The National Hurricane Center continues to outline this area in the Caribbean for a chance to develop over the next 5 days.
This is not a concern for Texas, and it’s rather easy to explain why. Our weather pattern over the next week (and beyond) will be dominated by this fluctuating ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere over the Central US stays in a position to basically shield Texas from any tropical nonsense right now.
This is both good and bad. It’s good because we could use a year off hurricane risks. It’s bad, though, because it’s likely to cause the drought across much of Texas to expand and intensify. We could use a tropical moisture for a couple days. It seems we’re not going to line things up correctly.
Will this heat ever end?
This brings me to the last point today: Texas is always hot in summer, but we’re running consistently above average right now, more like July than June. The honest answer is that I have absolutely no idea when this will end.
We’re getting ourselves into a bit of a pickle right now, with a stubborn weather pattern that keeps reinforcing itself over the Plains. Just look at that loop above and you’ll see this. There’s a saying in meteorology that “drought begets drought,” as patterns can occasionally start acting on feedback loops. More dry air, more dry lights, more dry air, more heat, more dry air, etc. I see absolutely nothing right now that would act as a catalyst for change, so we may be stuck in this morass for the rest of June at least, if not longer. We’ve been telegraphing this for a couple months now, but prepare to hear more about drought, burn bans, and maybe more in the coming weeks. Things can always change, of course, but we’ve got little data to predict change right now.