Joe’s Weather Blog: Heat is on + storms may return (TUE-6/21) | FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV

Happy 1st day of summer KC! It arrived earlier this morning… just after 4AM or so… compared to the 1st day of winter we get 5 hours and 30 extra minutes of daylight today. It is also the longest day of the year in terms of daylight as well…. daylight compared to today.

I am out of my annual trip to Arizona to take in the dry desert heat… 10 days or so.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++

Forecast:

Today: Hot and humid, breezy as well as highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices near 105 °. Storm chance increase before sunset… after 6PM or so, especially on the north side

Tonight: Storms around… the coverage won’t be 100% though. Some locally heavy rains and the potential of a locally strong wind gust and maybe some small hail with the storms will be with us. Temperatures by daybreak will be closer to 70 °

Tomorrow: Variable cloudy with maybe some leftover morning storms. Not as hot with highs in the mid 80s

Thursday: A lingering chance of some storms / rain in the AM… clouds may be an issue for awhile as well as highs in the 80s

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++

Discussion:

So let’s see IF I remember how to do these things called blogs.

Let’s start with the heat… since it’s been a while and we’ll get a break for a couple of days on Friday.

Today will be the 12th day straight with temperatures above average in the Metro. For the month we’re running almost 4 ° above average and while there may be a 48 hour break in the extreme heat … we’ll add more to that over the weekend.

So it’s been hot and humidity has been seen previously, which has turned into the steam … that’s been an issue … That is ripe and has added to the sultriness in the region.

Today we’re watching a cold front that will be moving into the region.

8AM surface map. Notice the numbers in green… those are the dew points… they do drop off behind the front.

As the front comes towards the area … it should be close to 70 ° or higher. That means there is a lot of instability out there… sunset.

Here is one of the models showing a few storms by 7 PM…odds favor of the initial development of the storms.

Then by 11 PM…

There may not be a lot of coverage to this… but it has been very difficult for the south side… moisture for awhile out of this front.

The good news is that we should see a break, noticeable, for a couple of days before the heat resurges ahead of another cold front, and a stronger one, that moves into the area Saturday. Should the front slow down a bit on Saturday, that could be a set-up for some stronger storms.

Temperatures on Friday will soar once again into the mid 90s and Saturday should be in the 90s as well before a more significant cooldown that comes into the region on Sunday… highs may struggle to get to 80 degrees!

As a matter of fact in the medium range…. The jet stream will be undergoing a realignment to some extent… allowing the more serious heat transfer to the Rockies and western US and allowing the region to be into NW flow aloft. This could easily be a period of storms, especially overnight thunderstorms to become a month again and possibly start July off.

Onwards.

Today is the 1st day of summer as mentioned at the top of the blog. Because of the tilt of the earth’s axis… at 23.5 °… today is the day when the sun’s light hits the northern hemisphere the most directly. Hence summer.

It’s also “show your stripes” day as well. This is a campaign to show how the temperatures have changed in the last 130 years or so. This data from Ed Hawkins simply shows the changes in annual temperatures in an easy way to understand. The blue lines are cooler than average and the red lines are warmer than average.

Let’s start with the world.

Dataset from NOAA

Now North America

Now the USA

Now Missouri

and finally Kansas

What do you notice from your left to the right? More red bars… and deeper reds right? That simply shows you how the earth and then drilled down to the states have been getting warmer and warmer. There are not many years in the KS / MO area… but it’s a persistent TREND over the course of many years.

The concentrated warm strips on the dust bowl are… , practically and across the globe.

IF you want more information about what you see above… here are some additional details… regarding methodology etc.

So many cloud pictures sent me over the past 10 days or so… here is one from Terri Bruntmyer up at Wood Heights, MO. This was taken on the 11th.

Nice to be back… see you on the news tonight.

Joe

.

Leave a Comment