Kansas City Weather: Rain chances this week

The weekend played out… The evening turned out fine and yesterday was a great day in the region.

Monday should follow suit with the sunshine.

The issue for the week are the rain chances. No severe weather is expected this week (at this point). The rain chances will be in and out, mostly out, but there are a couple out there this week. The repetitive should start on Friday and we may briefly heat up later in the weekend for a couple of days or so.

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Forecast

Today: Mostly sunny this morning then partly cloudy this afternoon. Seasonable with highs in the lower 80s

Tonight: Another risk of showers with some storms should develop later tonight as a disturbance or two comes toward the region from the central Plains. Rain chance is 60% because of these things have a mind of their own.

Tomorrow: Any brief early morning showers end, then overall pretty good with highs well into the 70s. Another late night chance of storms / rain

Wednesday: More or less like Tuesday: Any early morning activity moves away and skies will be partly cloudy with highs well into the 70s

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Discussion

My wife commented on how well the grass looks. She NEVER makes that comment. I have to admit it does look good. Timely and adequate rains and not too warm / hot days is bluegrass perfection. We’ve seemed to have that in spades recently.

I’m not expected too much to change this week. Overall average week for temperatures with OK mornings and mild afternoons. More grass growing weather I guess.

We’re also coming to the last stages of severe weather season locally. Now we don’t seem to have severe weather over the summer, it is likely that we have already had more tornadoes in June and July than in April and May around this region.

There have been some tornadoes after the 15th through the end of July… as the next 2 maps show.

Via Tornado Archive

Mostly for the Metro they are the changing versions.

In this weird severe weather season locally … I won’t be shocked even after the 15th there is some action.

While this data goes through the 2nd of June…

So far KS has had 37 reports of tornadoes… Missouri 10. Both of those are well below average.

Nebraska has had 18, while Iowa has had 47.

So far we had 800 reports of tornadoes through the 2nd. Again, add on about more to that through this morning. That is actually right around average.

The 30 year averages… through 2014 show KS getting about 100 tornadoes and MO about 40.

So yeah, well below average so far, and remember most of the tornadoes for the 2 states come through mid-June typically.

The pattern that we’re in now, at least for us, isn’t one that usually produces tornadoes. For one we are getting more from disturbances that are generated from thunderstorms out west and northwest of KC.

As those systems work through the Plains and undergo various changes and alterations, we get what’s left over and are usually in the form of rain and thunderstorms.

Sometimes you can get heavier from these systems, like what happened in the area last week, like what happened last night for parts of the area and may happen tonight and tomorrow night into early Wednesday.

One thing typically though is that models will struggle with timing and placement of said areas of rain. As the aforementioned disturbances generated by clusters of the western Plains have come to mind in terms of movement.

We have a general idea of ​​the general direction that they will go, but the specifics and the weakening or strengthening of the Mesoscale Convective Systems or MCS are usually going to work out as they happen and start organizing.

But IF I show you a radar radar snapshot at 2AM tomorrow morning… off the morning run of the HRRR model

and another one for tomorrow evening at 10 PM…

You can see we’re in the zone of incoming rains. Doesn’t mean you get both instances… not necessarily. The chances though will certainly be there early Wednesday.

Another chance comes early Friday, too, and that might do it for awhile.

Like I said, more grass growing weather.

Morgan Quick with the feature photo of the day from Saturday. Love the composition.

Joe

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