May 10, 5 PM (Updated to 10 PM) Weather Forecast Update-Heat to Sct’d Showers & Storms | News

Highs today reached 87-91 with heat indices reaching 90-97.

This, after lows this morning of only 63-70







Other than a small isolated shower / t’shower making it here tonight-tomorrow, we are warm & humid tonight with lows 67-71, followed by highs tomorrow of 89-92.

The record for Greater Lafayette tomorrow is 90 sets in 2011.

I sided with the HRRR model roughly for highs tomorrow.

Dew points 67-71 will result in heat indices of 92-99 with southeast to southwest 7-12 mph.







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From Thursday, 64-67 in the morning with some clouds, we should turn sunny by afternoon.

Some very dry air bleeds around the ridge in a tongue into the area. Dew points will likely drop to 43-50 by afternoon. So, it will be much less humid Thursday, but still very warm with highs 85-90.

I think it is a hot Thursday due to the warming nature of dry air and the strongly sinking air, but the model does not have to do with the wind.

So, I went with 85-90. The record for Greater Lafayette is 91 sets in 2011.

I did tweak the lows for Thursday night. With the dry air & clear skies with light to calm winds, temperatures should drop to 57-63.

We heat up on Friday to 87-91 with sunshine. Winds will be southeast to south-southeast at 7-13 mph. Dew points will be higher than Thursday, but not as high as Wednesday at 59-64.

As for Saturday, much of the shower / storm risk is Saturday night to Sunday AM. A couple isolated showers / storms are possible late Saturday, then scattered showers & storms move in.

Parameters suggest MARGINAL RISK for severe or Level 1 of 5 (isolated severe) at this point.

Also, at this point, it appears dry Sunday afternoon-Sunday night to Monday.

We drop to the 50s Sunday night after highs in the 70s to around 80 with west winds Sunday afternoon with some clearing.

As for the lunar eclipse Sunday night around midnight, so far, it looks like we may see the clouds clear. That is SO FAR….

In terms of rainfall Saturday to Sunday through the morning, variable totals of 0.50-1.50 “are expected.







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So, I went dry Monday with sunshine, drying southwest southeast & highs 74-80 with low humidity.

That shortwave & secondary cold front looks to pass Tuesday with some scattered showers & t’storms possible.

Highs of 69-74 seem reasonable after morning lows in the 50s.







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Highs 60s to near 70 with lows 40s to near 50 are likely Wednesday & Thursday of next week with winds becoming northeast to easterly.

However, surface cold front will stall & begin to migrate back north as a warm front surface.

Des Moines.

Meanwhile, severe weather will tend to occur in the warm, unstable sector from southwest Iowa to Kansas & possibly even Oklahoma & Texas (along the dry line there).







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It still seems we will get back into the very warm, humid weather Friday of next week (May 20) again with 80s.

Severe weather risk will likely evolve from Oklahoma to Missouri to southern Wisconsin.







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To me, from an analog standpoint, it just looks like a situation where we get the leftovers of the showers & storms west of us with some serious risk. After that, we then see a break followed by renewed storm development on Saturday, May 21. We will monitor that.

Highs in the 80s look good for now.

So, potentially Friday night (May 20-21):







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Saturday, May 21:







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We do cool down after that.

However, look at the intense heat building Texas to Oklahoma.

By May 25 or 26, we may see highs to +110 in southwestern Texas with 100 potentially to Oklahoma.

These are the temperatures shown in the evening on May 24:







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Storms are possible late, late May, the HEAT really begins to take hold!

I like the ECMWF (European model) depiction of the temperature anomalies early to mid-June.

The core of the intense heat & upper ridge is Oklahoma & Texas & we see it expand northeastward with heat here.







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Note the ECMWF depiction of precipitation anomalies which coincides better with the analog trend & my thinking of the Summer outlook

You can see the core of the below normal precipitation in the Plains expanding north & northeastward in June.







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Mid-June we see that signal especially established here.







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Given the expanding & contracting Plains upper ridge, we will have spells of very intense heat with severe weather.

However, there will be times when the contraction will put us in line for overall MCSs (complexes of storms) that can help mitigate the dryness at times.

However, overall, it continues ….. continues to look hotter and drier than normal Summer with 2011-style developing drought (2011 flash-type drought evolved in Summer, not Spring like 2012).

We’ll continue to monitor the active tropics & the periphery of that intense upper ridge for potential rainfall here.

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