More storms, rain on Thursday night

Wanted to let you know that I’m going to take some time off starting this weekend for 10 days or so … so after tomorrow’s blog, that will do it for awhile.

Summer will be sort of settling in at least a few days next week. We’ll see if it gets beat down again, but it doesn’t seem like the last half of the month will be overall warmer and more summery compared to the first half.

We have more rain on the way, but this may do it for awhile. While there may be some rain next week too IF you can get a cold front into the region later on in the week. The overnight night rains this time is not quite as dramatic as what happened a couple of nights ago… which is welcome news.

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Forecast

Today: Sunny this morning, with partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. There may be some showers / storms towards the NE of the Metro into northern MO later today

Tonight: Storms are possible… likely after 12AM coming in from the northwest… from Nebraska. Odds are these storms won’t be severe but will be watched in some isolated stronger storms. Lows in the lower 60s

Tomorrow: We should shut down the rain early on. There may be some lingering showers / storms in the morning though followed by some afternoon sunshine. Highs in the mid 70s

The Weekend: Looks good with sunshine and pleasant weather Saturday… highs in the lower 80s and then warmer on Sunday with mid to upper 80s and more likely humidity.

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Discussion

All told… I believe we’ll end up with 4 tornadoes from the other night.

The EF2 tornado in Buckner.

The EF1 tornado in eastern Johnson County and western Jackson County.

Two new ones added last night in Miami County … EF0’s

The triangles represent data points. It may look like the path was from right to left, but it’s the opposite, left to right.

So four tornadoes from this complex of storms that pushed through the region.

Reviewing the radar data in a very small setting mesovorticies that were tracking across the region. A few of them did create these tornadoes above, some of them did not appear, and did not create a tornado compared to those that did.

It did not scream tornadoes.

So it goes with these things. In retrospect, and in reviewing the data from the night of the storms, there were a few parameters that established themselves as things were evolving, perhaps they could have been caught in time. Yet, in many instances, the same night.

The helicity, or at its simplest, the tendency of the air to rotate below about two miles.

This was for 1AM or so before the storms were pushing into the Metro. Those values ​​are pretty high

There were a few other things that were developing as the event was unfolding, but in the heat of developing a line of storms, it sort of got lost in the shuffle.

Bad time of night, murky set-up and if we have the same scenario happen 10 times in the future it may never produce a tornado, though strong straight line winds would be the issue more times than not.

Onward.

The storms tonight aren’t expected to be as potent. For one, we won’t have the instability this time through I don’t believe. Surface dewpoints will be in the 60 ° range, which is lower than the other night.

Instability at the surface and above will be much lower than the other night, especially from KC northeastwards. So what comes down from the Plains won’t have the energy to be overly potent.

So at this point, this is the idea from the Storm Prediction Center.

Higher risks towards the SW of the Metro.

Seems reasonable. Could there be a rogue severe thunderstorm with a 60 MPH wind? Sure.

My inclination is most of the rain should wind down towards daybreak tomorrow. Some data shows a few leftover morning showers possible.

Then we’re done for awhile as the heat, in time, builds into the region.

Data from the EURO overnight…

This model has been running a bit high though in hot weather scenarios

The GFS ensembles…

Still pretty toasty.

There may be a rush in the Plains next Wednesday, but likely the hot weather returns after that. So IF there is some rain next week, it might be then.

While the pattern appears to be in flux, it will translate into higher surface dew points and also higher heat indices. In other words: Summer heat and humidity.

The feature photo comes from Christy Burnworth down in Martin City.

Joe

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