Oregon economic forecaster says economy could be cooling; The projected kicker grows to $3.5 billion

SALEM, Ore. (AP) — Oregon’s recent boom in tax revenue is coming to an end.

That was the message from state economists Wednesday as they delivered the latest revenue forecast. Oregon Public Broadcasting reports that state economist Mark McMullen told lawmakers “not all of this revenue boom is sustainable.”

Forecasters say that under an optimistic outlook, Oregon will get $600 million more in the current two-year budget cycle than predicted three months ago.

“The projected personal kicker is $3.5 billion, which will be credited to taxpayers when they file their returns in Spring 2024,” the forecast stated. “The projected corporate kicker is $1.1 billion, which will be retained for educational spending.

The more optimistic scenario is less rosy in future years, when it predicts revenue growth will be less than predicted earlier this year. And forecasters warned there’s a possibility of a mild recession at the end of next year.

The state does have reserves in the event of an economic slowdown. Those reserves are expected to be more than $2 billion by June 2023.

And state lawmakers have $3.7 billion in revenue they did not spend in the current budget.

“Thanks to the fiscally responsible decisions the State of Oregon has made over the last several years, we are well positioned with significant reserves to weather any economic challenges that lie ahead,” Gov. Kate Brown said in a statement. “Now, we must continue to make investments to benefit Oregon’s working families, so that all Oregonians can feel the benefits of our strong economic recovery.”


Governor Kate Brown Statement on September Revenue Forecast

(Salem, OR) — Governor Kate Brown today issued the following statement on the state’s September revenue forecast:

“Thanks to the fiscally responsible decisions the State of Oregon has made over the last several years, we are well positioned with significant reserves to weather any economic challenges that lie ahead. Now, we must continue to make investments to benefit Oregon’s working families, so that all Oregonians can feel the benefits of our strong economic recovery.

“With rising costs of living continuing to impact Oregon families and businesses, the Legislature can, in the budget for the next biennium, build on the investments we made in the last session–particularly in housing, workforce development, behavioral health, and child care.

“And, thanks to the work of Oregon’s congressional delegation and the Biden-Harris administration to pass the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, we can continue to invest federal dollars to lower costs and create jobs for working families.”


Majority Leader Julie Fahey Statement on Steady Revenue Forecast

SALEM, Ore. – Today, Majority Leader Julie Fahey (D-West Eugene/Junction City) issued the following statement after the release of the latest quarterly state economic and revenue forecast:

“Today’s revenue forecast demonstrates steady growth in our economy and shows why we must continue to invest in working and low-income Oregonians, as well as small businesses, which make up 99.4% of all businesses in the state. When corporations and the wealthiest of Americans are raking in the largest profit margins since the 1950s and have received generous tax break handouts, it’s past time we build an economy that works for everyone — not just those at the top.

That means focusing our investments on driving down the cost of living, addressing the ongoing affordable housing crisis, creating stronger schools, improving our childcare infrastructure, and supporting small businesses. These investments will help all Oregonians prosper, not just now but in the years to come. Because we know that when everyone has economic opportunity and the resources they need to thrive, we are all stronger and better for it.”


August Revenue Forecast Offers Bleak Outlook for Next Biennium

PRINEVILLE, Ore. – Following the release of the August revenue forecast by state economists, House Republican Leader Vikki Breese-Iverson released the following statement.

“In eastern Oregon, when we see a storm coming on the horizon, we prepare for it. Today’s revenue forecast is the dark rumbling clouds on the horizon and everyone needs to take stock and the necessary steps now to prepare,” said Breese-Iverson.

“Oregonians are feeling the effects of inflation every day – food prices, gas and the cost of housing are higher than ever. The forecast indicates these hardships will continue through the biennium and Oregonians will feel the effects across the state.”

“Now is not the time to grow government spending. It is not the time to increase regulations or bureaucracy. It is the time to identify wasteful government spending, plan strategic agency budget cuts and build our reserves to work through the oncoming recession and dark storm clouds the Governor’s economic advisors are predicting!”

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